TVSquad

After one week of competition, it's easy to see which celebrities on Dancing with the Stars have the potential to go all the way and which will barely squeak past week two. It wasn't a shock having either Macy Gray or Ashley Hamilton eliminated week one.

If this season's contestants follow the trend of celebrities before them, one can figure out how they will fare this year. There are some small wrenches like new dances (Bolero, Lambada, Charleston, and Two Step) and the return of the face-off. Combining previous contestants' performances with this year's first week, I've compiled where everyone stands.

Finalist Potential

Mya

Similar to: Lil' Kim, Mel B. (Musicians with natural rhythm)
Positives: Her tap training and pop dancing shows she has rhythm. She has good sex appeal for Latin dances.
Negatives: Dmitry's choreography may have made it to Len's naughty list. If he appeases Len, the performance may suffer, but if he appeases America, Len's score will stay low.

Aaron Carter

Similar to: Joey Fatone, Lance Bass (Boy Band-type with pop dance training)
Positives: He has spunk and is willing to do the work. His youth is a plus for endurance in later rounds.
Negatives: Some of his steps are lanky and his arms need help. E! celebrities (Holly Madison and Kim Kardasian) have failed before. Will House of Carters be his demise?

Kelly Osbourne

Similar to: Stacy Keibler (question mark in the beginning, lots of potential by the end)
Positives: Kelly's excited to be on the show, she seems to have strong sense of rhythm, and Louis Van Amstel is giving her great choreography.
Negatives: After being awarded the first encore performance, will Kelly be able to match her success or will she be stuck trying to reach that pedestal for the rest of the season? Also, her sex appeal will come into play in Latin dances.

Donny Osmond

Similar to: Marie Osmond (Plays to the camera), John O'Hurley (Older actor with sophistication)
Positives: Donny is a showman, he can sell anything. He also has a billion Osmonds voting for him.
Negatives: He won't be able to faint his way into the finals. He may get goofy during Latin dances.


Above Average Dancers

Natalie Coughlin

Similar to: Shawn Johnson, Misty-May Treanor (Olympians with drive)
Positives: She has the Olympic spirit and has the time to focus on the show. With Alec's return to the dance floor, his choreography is fresh to watch.
Negatives: She needs to learn how to control her face. As a swimmer, she can have the tendency of having tense shoulders.

Mark Decascos

Similar to: Hélio Castroneves (Hard working underdog)
Positives: Mark is the ideal male for DWTS: physically fit, but not heavily muscly so that his posture would suffer. Since he's shown agility, he can do several moves more gracefully than any of the men.
Negatives: As long as we never see kung-fu in dance form we can be okay. Lacey has been known to have edgy choreography that Len may not approve. He'll have to win over America as a relative unknown.

Joanna Krupa

Similar to: Brooke Burke, Shannon Elisabeth (Models paired up with Derek Hough)
Positives: Joanna has the best partner if you're a model. Derek knows how to deal with models and choreographs to their strengths. She has sex appeal in Latin dances.
Negatives: Bad posture will lower her scores if she can't adjust. Models have been hit (Brooke Burke) and miss (Shanna Moakler) on the show; there's a chance that America won't warm up to her.

Louie Vito

Similar to: Cody Linley (Youth), Apollo Ohno (Winter Olympian)
Positives: Chelsie Hightower did amazing with Ty Murray last year. There's good chemistry between the two. Louie is willing to do the work; the two will stride to the middle of the show with ease.
Negatives: Louie has never seen the show before. Even watching one episode could mentally prepare him. He has to win over fans who have never seen snowboarding.


Average Dancers

Melissa Joan Hart

Similar to: Jennie Garth (Actress you remember from the 90s)
Positives: Mark has won twice and is a good instructor. Melissa has the whole (now twenty-something) people who watched either Clarissa Explains it All or Sabrina the Teenage Witch.
Negatives: I question Melissa's stamina and rhythm. She'll suffer in Latin if she can't find her hips.

Chuck Liddell

Similar to: Floyd Mayweather, Jr. (Muscled, Manly Athletes)
Positives: He's listening to his partner Anna and if he listens to and survives the judges critiques, he can fix his problems.
Negatives: Right now he's coming off like Shrek: lovable but oaf-like. America needs to give him a chance, because he is the type who will grow and evolve into a good dancer if he was given time.

Debi Mazar

Similar to: Jane Seymour (Older Actress)
Positives: Her acting skills will be an advantage if she can get to the Tango or Paso Doble.
Negatives: She talks too much. Although she has Maks, even he can't stand it. If they can't work together, disaster will strike. She also had a neck injury after week one, which means it could flare up anytime during the show.


Early Exits

Tom DeLay

Similar to: Wayne Newton (Older male paired up with Cheryl)
Positives: He's generated the biggest pre-show buzz this season. The high coverage of his name will benefit him. There's a chance that every Republican is secretly voting for him.
Negatives: His age is a big factor. We're not going to see a lot of tricks that Cheryl got to do with partners like Drew Lachey; instead, she'll focus on the core techniques of the dance. America grows tired of one trick ponies (Steve Wozniak, Cloris Leachman) and he will go home before week five if he's all gimmick.

Michael Irvin

Similar to: Jerry Rice (Retired Football Player)
Positives: Football players have a lot of drive. He has a big goal: do better than Jerry Rice. That's a high goal to reach.
Negatives: When Jerry Rice almost won season two, the show was different. Dances like the Mambo weren't part of the lineup. If he can't pick up the choreography, he's gone. Also, his partner Anna's choreography is weak.

Kathy Ireland

Similar to: Paulina Porizkova (Antiquated Supermodel)
Positives: She didn't get eliminated week one. This gives her an opportunity to win over America.
Negatives: She's on the bottom of the heap. She now holds the bottom most score for the women after Macy Gray was eliminated.

If I had to pick a winner now, barring from shocking injuries (Misty-May Treanor) or scandals (Sara Evans), I'm predicting that the women will continue their dominance. The final three will be: Natalie Coughlin, Donny Osmond, and Mya. Fourth will be Louie Vito and fifth Kelly Osbourne. I think Natalie Coughlin will continue the trend of Olympians winning this show and narrowly defeat Donnie Osmond. What do you think? Leave comments below.