
(S05E14) "Well, I got some bad news for you Jack. You don't belong here at all. She was wrong." - Faraday
After listening to Carlton Cuse and Damon Lindelof ranting in last week's Lost audio podcast, I didn't expect "The Variable" to be this much of a game changer. Everything we thought we knew about the island, time travel, and course correcting - it all got turned upside down. I think it's safe to say that the 100th episode of Lost is going to be remembered for more than just its milestone significance.
Timeline wise, we picked right up after Desmond and Ben's scuffle at the marina. Penny had taken Desmond to the hospital with a severe gunshot wound. So much for all those "magical milk carton" theories. Seems that Desmond was just running on pure adrenaline when he kicked the crap out of Ben. Then Miss Hawking showed up and she told Penny that she thought it was Dan's fault that Desmond was shot. I didn't get that - seemed more like Ellie was just transferring blame to her son. She was the one who told Ben how to return to the island thus putting him in a position to repay his favor to Charles by trying to kill Penny. But then again, it was Dan who knocked on the Swan door setting Desmond on his journey to LA in the first place.
Speaking of Charles - consider this. Once we found out that he was Dan's father, it also became fairly clear that Charles and Ellie had some sort of falling out. Perhaps Ellie knew about Ben's promise to Charles and hoped that he would kill Penny so that Widmore would know the same pain she felt about her son Dan? I'll come back to that.
On the island in 1977, Dan went into overdrive upon his return. Relying heavily on his notebook, he seemed to know exactly where and when everyone was on the island. First he went after Dr. Chang and we finally got to see the whole scene that opened the season premiere with Dan wearing a hardhat in the Orchid. Again, relying heavily on the information recorded in his notebook (presumably from his research at DHARMA HQ in Ann Arbor, MI), Dan told Chang that everyone had to get off the island because The Swan's pocket of electromagnetism was going to blow in about four hours when a worker drills into it - a.k.a. "the incident," something we haven't really heard about since seeing The Swan orientation film in the beginning of season two.
After that, he had to go warn Jack, Kate, Hurley, Jin, Sawyer, Miles, and Juliet. You just got here but time to leave. That whole scene was really well done and I love how Kate was placed in a position to pick Jack or Sawyer yet again only to have Juliet jump in and give Kate the code for the fence, thus guaranteeing she'd choose Jack. What did Dan need to do? Find Ellie, his mother, while Sawyer and everyone else went back to the beach where it all started. Sawyer's longest con was finally over. I really felt bad for him when Dan said none of them belonged and Sawyer said he and Juliet did just fine until they all showed up.
Once Jack, Kate, and Dan found the others, Dan demanded to talk to Ellie by holding Richard at gunpoint and then "whatever happened, happened" - Ellie shot and killed her own son. This immediately made all the flashbacks of Dan's early life that much more poignant. His mother was being a hard-ass about his studies for a reason - she knew exactly when and how he was going to die and she sent him back to the island anyway.
Which brings us to the variable - people. Dan had been so focused on the constant that he never considered what actually could be changed. This goes against everything we've thought this whole time. If the incident never occurs, then the Swan is never encased in concrete. No one ever has to push the button to contain the energy. That means Desmond will never forget to push the button. Flight 815 will never crash. Widmore will never send his freighter. Dan will never go back to the island and he'll live. How was Dan going to stop the incident before Mum shot him? Nuke the whole island with Jughead.
So what does this all mean? It really is all Ellie Hawking's fault in some oddball way - she's trying to save her son's life. By convincing everyone else to go back to the island, all she could do was hope that prior to Dan's death, he'd be able to convince someone else to carry on his task - detonate Jughead. Jack seemed on board with erasing history, but Kate was a little iffy. So it would appear that the coming "war" is actually Ellie vs. Charles. Blow the island up or save it. It's actually starting to look like Ben really doesn't have anything to do with the bigger picture.
Final observations on "The Variable" --
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First off, what a completely amazing mindf*ck. This will easily go down as one of the greatest episodes of Lost. My head hurts and I apologize for this being so jumbled. I'm sure I'm forgetting something important...
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Favorite scene of the episode? When Dan warned young Charlotte. He wasn't so scary, but he was sobering in his honesty. He loved that little girl and you could see how much he really wanted to believe that things could be changed.
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I'm always impressed with how previously seen flashbacks frequently come back and get fleshed out more. We got the Orchid scene from the season premiere that I already mentioned as well as the scene of Dan crying at the sight of the Flight 815 footage from "Confirmed Dead." Turns out he was in some sort of home with a caretaker - his experiments fried his brain just like Theresa's. Charlotte's memory tests with Dan using the playing cards makes a lot more sense now.
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1954? Fonzie times? Hilarious.
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We know Sawyer doesn't kill Radzinsky (since the guy offs himself in The Swan years later), so how are Sawyer and Juliet going to get away?
One final question - if people really are the variable, if they really do have some sort of freewill, if Ellie's goal is to save her son, then why did she send Dan back to the island? She could have told him not to take Widmore's job offer and lived out her days knowing he's still alive and not questioning if he was able to change it all. Could something bigger still be at play? Maybe we'll find out next week when Richard's role in all of this is finally revealed:
"Follow the Leader" - Jack and Kate find themselves at odds over the direction to take to save their fellow island survivors, Locke further solidifies his stance as leader of "The Others," and Sawyer and Juliet come under scrutiny from the DHARMA Initiative, on "Lost," WEDNESDAY, MAY 6 (9:00-10:02 p.m., ET) on ABC.















Reader Comments (Page 1 of 5)
4-30-2009 @ 10:14AM
Adam said...
question: what was so important about that specific time in history? in theory, couldn't faraday have changed "anything" and have had the same result of changing the sequence? or was it because 1977 was his present when he figured "the variable" out and this was his only opportunity?
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4-30-2009 @ 10:14AM
TMZ said...
This will indeed go down as one of LOST's best episodes. When the show first started, I think that we all assumed that the endgame would be "How do they get off of the island?". We were proven wrong when the Oceanic 6 got off of the island before the show ended. I wonder, was the whole point of the show "How do they stop the plane from crashing?". We'll see.
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4-30-2009 @ 10:15AM
ral said...
In the present, Eloise told Penny something like "for the first time, I don't know what's going to happen next"
Did Daniel have his journal with him when he entered the Others' camp?
If so, did Eloise take it and use it for herself? Did she take it and GIVE it to Daniel as a gift - meaning the version he had ALREADY had stuff written in it?
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4-30-2009 @ 4:10PM
PC RUSSETT said...
Ah. That revelation of yours just gave me chills. I wonder if the notebook she gave him DID already have his extensive notes in it ... that would be wild indeed!
5-02-2009 @ 2:09AM
Tom said...
Ral, what a great thought!
And I've thought and thought about it, trying to remember points from past shows, and thought some more...
...and I'm not prepared to make an assumption on the subject either way. Its just a damned interesting question!
One thing that bothers me. Faraday's mind doesn't seem quite right before going to the Island. Widmore tells him the Island will heal his mind. Faraday wasn't on the Island very long, and then seemingly spent years off the Island in Ann Arbor. Was his brief exposure enough to cure him? I guess Locke was miraculously healed just on waking up after the crash. But I wonder, if I reviewed the episodes from Faraday's first introduction to us, would I notice that he initially acted messed up and slowly got better, or would I notice nothing at all?
4-30-2009 @ 10:15AM
jffm said...
Just a couple of points.
Daniel said setting off the bomb would negate the effects of the release of the energy. That leaves open the possibility that the energies could possibly cancel out each other out and *not* destroy the island and whoever may be on it.
How do Sawyer and Kate get away? My money is on Jack and Kate returning and saving the day.
But the biggest and most important point to me is, have we really seen *anyone* do something to change a future event? Sayid shot Ben, but we've seen Ben and the events surrounding him remain unchanged. Daniel still wound up giving the warning to Charlotte; a warning we know changes nothing. Despite Daniel and the Losties being back in 1977 and everything they've done we, so far, are still racing towards "the incident".
So we've seen that the pieces on the board can be moved in different ways, but it still looks like the end result still stays the same.
But it was a great episode, and I'm betting the finale is going to be even better.
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4-30-2009 @ 4:11PM
Eludium-Q36 said...
I don't know that I'd trust Daniel's scientific judgment or knowledge anymore. Seriously, if he was THAT wrong about relativistic physics -- c'mon, how do you forget variables ?! -- then how can you trust his nuclear physics ? And he just lays it out there that his mother was all wrong about their being back on the island, but offers no justification for it. That's just bogus character development -- writers' fault again.
5-01-2009 @ 10:18AM
gwen said...
I'm not even sure the pieces have been moved. I think they always happened that way. I think that the 815ers had to go back because that's how it always was. I don't think they changed anything. Charlotte said before she died that she saw Dan when she was a little girl - he hadn't done that yet. Dan said that although they were "in the past" they were still living their present.
I don't think there are actually any variables. I think Dan had a theory that there COULD be variables. I think anything Kate and Jack and everyone else does next week will only further the events that already happened in 1977 - even if they think they're trying to undo the events that happened in 1977.
So convoluted - I really doubt I just made any sense...
4-30-2009 @ 8:37AM
Bret said...
I guess I was the only one that was unimpressed with this episode. Nothing was new except Faraday thought he could now change things....but in the end of this episode, he couldn't/didn't. Just because Faraday says they are all variables, doesn't mean they are. So for me, things don't get interesting until something actually does change. And come to think about it, one of the reasons I've liked Lost is it has been consistent about not being able to change the past.
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4-30-2009 @ 10:18AM
JPN said...
I thought the same thing - it was kind of stuff that maybe I had just taken for granted, and it was just seeing all these things play out that I knew. It was a good episode though. I also wonder if Faraday could be brought back to life in the Temple, as we see some of them going there next week.
4-30-2009 @ 4:35PM
Nacho said...
No, you weren't the only one left wanting by this episode.
I had the exact opposite reaction from this show as Jonathan did. After listening to the Podcast I was set up for this to be a huge episode and in the end, it changed absolutely nothing. I dunno what Jonathan was smoking when he watched this, but I want some.
5-01-2009 @ 10:19AM
bruce said...
I'm with you. After I finished watching it, I had the thought that now the plotline is to make sure that none of the past 5 seasons of the show ever happened? That would be horrible if the series finale is Oceanic 815 landing safely in LA. Horrible.
The only thing we really learned was that Daniel Farday is Charles Widmore's son (something which a lot of people suspected). Speaking of Faraday, why the hell would he storm into the "Hostile" Other's camp brandishing a gun, and then threaten their leader? What was he thinking? He would have been just fine, like everyone else who walked into their camp, if he had done so with his hands up saying "I come in peace - not here to cause any problems please I just need to speak with Ellie - she's my mother!" But no, he comes in and threatens to kill Alpert? I'll shoot on three, one, two - bang. Dead Dan. Of course bang. Jeez.
I'm a little confused about the electromagnetic explosion. Perhaps someone can explain this to me. First of all, we've seen no indication that there was such an explosion back in 1977. Second of all, I don't see how an even bigger, radioactive thermonuclear explosion would change anything. As for the Swan, they already had the Hatch there (even put the serial number on it), so it seems they knew it would be buried underground. Right? At the same time I recall Radzinsky building a model of a geodesic dome. Was that what the Swan was supposed to look like - above ground? If so why was the big, heavy hatch door already there?
I was expecting Faraday to reveal secrets about the Island. We didn't get any of them. Not one new fact about the island.
Finally, why can't Ellie and the others save the shot Faraday the same way the saved the shot Ben Linus? Assuming they would want to, of course, but it seems Ellie believed him about being her son. Why can't Faraday be saved by the island and/or the powers of the Others? Okay he'll lose his innocence and never be the same, great. Whatever. Why not do it?
5-01-2009 @ 10:17AM
Sho said...
To bruce:
"Perhaps someone can explain this to me. First of all, we've seen no indication that there was such an explosion back in 1977."
- In the episode "Orientation", the orientation video Locke and Jack watched made reference to an "incident" that occured during the excavation for the Swan station. Afterwards, they repurposed the station to manage the energy being emitted from the site (supposedly the original function of the station was to be to study that energy).
"Second of all, I don't see how an even bigger, radioactive thermonuclear explosion would change anything."
- Faraday believed that the bomb detonation could negate whatever energy was being emitted from the site, thus undoing all the events that would lead to Oceanic 815 crashing on the island.
“I was expecting Faraday to reveal secrets about the Island. We didn't get any of them. Not one new fact about the island.”
- I’m not sure what secrets we should expect Faraday to have since he appeared to spend a great deal of the time following their arrival in the 1970’s off the island, but we still don’t entirely know what he has written in his book.
“Finally, why can't Ellie and the others save the shot Faraday the same way the saved the shot Ben Linus?”
- Why would they?
- Ben was someone Richard seemed to have prior investment in and when he brought him to the temple it was implied that he was doing something that Charles and Ellie (the apparent leaders of the Others in that time) wouldn’t approve of.
- Additionally, Ben was still alive when he was brought into the temple. In the last scene of this episode, it seemed like Faraday had died after his last words.
5-01-2009 @ 10:18AM
MacGuffin said...
This show has moved from frustrating as hell to completely preposterous.
5-02-2009 @ 3:51PM
Tom said...
Responding mostly to Bruce and Sho:
"'I was expecting Faraday to reveal secrets about the Island. We didn't get any of them. Not one new fact about the island.'
- I’m not sure what secrets we should expect Faraday to have since he appeared to spend a great deal of the time following their arrival in the 1970’s off the island..."
Faraday seems to be the character who acts as if he has the greatest understanding of what's occuring on the island, and he's spent time in Ann Arbor doing research. He comes back and tells people all these absolutes (e.g. Jack shouldn't be there, he has to make sure Chang does what he's supposed to, people actually are variables that can change the past) without anything to support his statements (i.e. its ALL exposition with no substance) and THEN HE DIES a seemingly insignificant and unimportant death (he accomplishes nothing, reveals nothing). And everyone is up in arms.
It reminds me of BSG and the introduction of the Daniel character in that show. All coincidences aside, everybody expected that Daniel to play a major role, but the writers said they didn't expect everybody to go down a rabbit hole with that character. Well, without going into details, our response to the BSG was a giant collective "Duh!"
I feel like we're doing the something here, chasing Daniel Faraday down a rabbit whole the writers didn't want us to, but they should have realized that we wouldn't accept just glossing over the information this seemingly important character contained...
...unless, of course, they do reessurect him and he becomes Jacob...
FOR THE RECORD: This episode was far from brilliant; it was disconcerting, with not the best acting I've seen from some of these characters, and they way it unfolded seemed kind of forced and ultimately anticlimactic.
5-02-2009 @ 10:12AM
Sho said...
To Tom:
“Faraday seems to be the character who acts as if he has the greatest understanding of what's occuring on the island, and he's spent time in Ann Arbor doing research. He comes back and tells people all these absolutes (e.g. Jack shouldn't be there, he has to make sure Chang does what he's supposed to, people actually are variables that can change the past) without anything to support his statements (i.e. its ALL exposition with no substance)…”
- As far as we’ve seen, Faraday’s “knowledge” has been THEORIES in regards to the time-related phenomena occurring on the island based on what he’s studied in regards to physics (not in depth knowledge as to what the source of these phenomena are).
- The trigger for his revision of his earlier theories seemed to be the fact that Jack and the rest of the “returnees” showed up in the 1970’s. If I’m not mistaken, he cited a photo of Jack and the rest as his reason for returning back to the island from Ann Arbor in the first place. The full “support” for his revised theory was supposed to come from his plan to negate the energy from the Swan site, but he was killed before he could see that through.
“…and THEN HE DIES a seemingly insignificant and unimportant death (he accomplishes nothing, reveals nothing).”
- In terms of the overall plot, Faraday’s arrival and his comments helped to put doubts into the minds of some of the “returnees” (or at least Jack) that they should just continue to lay low in the 1970’s. At a guess, these events may help to trigger the previously mentioned “incident” or may help reunite those in the past with the present (or both). The events of the episode also help to put Faraday’s notebook into the hands of Jack, something which looks like it will have continued significance at least into the next episode.
- In terms of just the episode itself, it gave us further insight into Faraday, Ms. Hawking, and the relationship between her and Widmore (This is still a character drama you know!). It also added a level of tragic irony to the character Faraday in that, despite his knowledge and theories in regards to time and his revised efforts to change things, he found himself the victim of a circular chain of events that both begin and end with his death.
5-02-2009 @ 11:33AM
loolu said...
-Does anybody else think that Daniel Faraday already knew of the variables - from the time he knocked on Desmond door and told him to see his mother ? I think Daniel was lying and manipulating people, for a good reason of course, to get exactly what he wants to happen to happen, and we are about to see all of that unfold. So this episode, to me, was important.
So, he is trying to change the future through the people around him. And he's tried to change things before, when he told Charlotte not to come back to the island, yet she did. Why didnt he want Charlotte to return to the island, because he already knew that if she returned she would die. So he had to have been trying to stop this moment and other events from before. Hes done this all before. So until he stops certain events from happening they will stay on this sort of loop.
So Charlottes death represents his failure to solve this island loop problem, and that he must try another set of variables to change the events and solve the equation. So he tries something else. I think on this episode he even told her something different than he did the last time he saw young Charlotte in 1977 (thats why we didnt here what he said).
I also believe that Dan, isnt the biological child of either Eloise or Charles, because in 1977, Dan should have already been born, also Penny, but we dont see any kids amongst the others! So what happens? Dan goes off the island to visit himself, to tell himself, like he did Charlotte of what to or not to do in the future. Why else did he leave the island on the sub and then return three years later?
-So,Dan goes around planting seeds in everybody including him-young-self to change their actions and therefore the future. But he's also figured out he must die. Thats why he goes into the camp armed. He's not stupid.... watch the scene again, its all so calculated for him. He knows what he's doing and what he has to say (even to his mother) again for the results he wants acheived. Besides if his attempts fail, again, he'll know when his youngself grows up and see's the airplane at the bottom of the ocean in the future. Oh by the way, you think he's crying because he cant remember and its all sad. He's crying because again the plane represents the fact that his early 1977 attempts failed once again and he must try another variable. its all in his book.
-Why did he tell them "what happened happened" nothing can be changed and then tells them he was basically wrong in this episode? He cant have everybody trying to change the variables. He must have total control of what needs to be changed inorder to change it to get the results he wants. Thats exactly why he told Sawyer not to even bother knocking on the hatch because he wont change anything, but goes right ahead and doesnt it any way...he needs to be in control of his variables.
-Oh by the way, his act of memory loss is his way of playing Hamlet, "playing the fool to catch the wise". I dont think he lost his memory at all, its his way of watching his parents and see the actons they will take to get him back on the island.
So for Dan its groundhog day (refering to the movie) he has to do it over and over until he gets it right.
So in my humble opinion, Dans a scientist who has figured out what or who the variables are/were long before, but now he has to find out the set of actions he and others must take to get the proper results in the future. So i think we cant write him off as a failed character in the Lost plot. Theres so much still missing.
Of course i could be worng, and all this could be just as confusing as the show but i rather have the faith that Dan is the key to stopping these series of events from ever happening, and we are watching is final attempt as it unfolds and eventually succeed.
4-30-2009 @ 10:15AM
HD said...
I'm interested to learn how the main characters are tied to the island BEFORE they ever got on 815. For example, the numbers tied Hurley to the island before he ever got on the plane - there has to be a reason for that right?
On other note - why would Kate want to stop the plane from crashing - she would be going to jail (probably for life) and never have any relationship with Jack, Sawyer or Aaron.
Maybe Hurley can see people who have died but are alive in another timeline?
The show used to be about redemption - what happened to that?
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4-30-2009 @ 10:18AM
Porchland said...
I'm not going to post a spoiler here, but the pre-island ties are apparently going to be addressed to some extent in the season finale.
5-02-2009 @ 12:52AM
Tom said...
"I'm interested to learn how the main characters are tied to the island BEFORE they ever got on 815. For example, the numbers tied Hurley to the island before he ever got on the plane - there has to be a reason for that right?"
Just a thought--from the perspective of a 3rd Party Observer, Hurley heard the numbers for the first time in 1977. Of course, from Hurley's perspective, he's heard it many times before, both before and after the crash of flight 815. Therefore, Hurley was tied to the island long before 2004 when the plane crashed--He had been there already in 1977 (from an observer's point of view)!
Perhaps the fact that Hurley in 1977 heard the numbers echoed in a sort of "God Particle" kind of sense with Hurley in the 21st century.