You could make a case for Fringe being the biggest premiere of the fall season. Through the involvement of J.J. Abrams, and a boatload of promotion from the network, the show has generated an incredible amount of buzz. The thing about buzz though, is that it's often fleeting. At some point the show will have to back it up. There are still many weeks to go before we'll have a good idea of the result of the Fringe experiment, but where's the fun in waiting for the numbers? I ask you, TV Squad readers, to put on your ratings analysis caps and make the call. How will Fringe fare?
It's a complicated question. The biggest sticking point for me is the "serialized drama" question. The producers seem to be going out of their way to make sure everyone knows that this isn't like Lost. The LA Times quotes Abrams as saying that Fringe will be "a show that people can watch as frequently and as infrequently as they want to." That's all well and good to say, but in the same article he refers to "a larger mythology." In addition, lead actress Anna Torv says that what she loves about the show is the conspiracy. That's not the stuff of easily accessible procedurals.
Abrams told TV Guide that "the model for Fringe is closer to ER, where there are ongoing relationships and storylines." Again, I get the idea they are getting at. But shows like ER don't have a mystery at the core of their ongoing relationships and storylines. It's a big difference. Having already seen the premiere, I have to wonder. It certainly teases the idea of a grand conspiracy. The kind that spawns cult followings, fan sites, and long drawn out posts on what it all means. It could very well be that all of that will take a back seat as the show moves along. Of course, that may bring its own set of complications. If the Massive Dynamics conspiracy is intriguing, will putting it on the back burner alienate viewers who long for the all so familiar "answers?" How they ultimately balance the mythology with the procedural aspect of the show will weigh heavily on its success.
Another point to consider is the time slot. Following Dr. House is a cushy place to be. It should certainly help to keep the viewer numbers up as the show progresses in the early part of the season. But it is a bit of a double edged sword. With a great lead-in comes the responsibility to hold on to viewers. I don't think Fringe has any hope of building on the House audience, but it could make a run at holding a good percentage.
At the end of the day, I'm looking for really good numbers from the premiere, with the possibility of even getting a bump in week two when House comes on board. I'd look for a drop in week three. Just how big a drop will be very telling. But since we're placing bets early, here's mine. My best guess says that Fringe develops into a demo hit. Once the full slate of programming on all the networks kicks into gear, it's going to have trouble finding its way into the top ten in viewer count, but success in the key demos will bring a second season.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
9-09-2008 @ 10:17AM
chadwick said...
Even if Fringe is a huge hit "House" is still in a league of its own. Hugh Laurie is one of those rare talents that you can't keep your eyes off. However, I am really looking forward to the premiere. Hopefully it's nothing like "The Nine". Wow that sucked.
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9-09-2008 @ 10:17AM
Joe said...
My bet is that they will lose between 40-50% of the premiere audience by the third episode and alot of it after the first (this House bump you speak of? Doubful). I think the premiere audience will be huge though, so there should be enough eyes on screen to get through to a second season and for Fringe to be 'a success' financially, if not critically.
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9-09-2008 @ 10:50AM
K.V.C said...
Moving House to 8:00 for this to run after is going to hurt House. House is not an 8:00pm show.
FOX is the absolute worst network.
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9-09-2008 @ 12:41PM
tcc3 said...
They could air House at 3am and it almost wouldn't matter.
But I agree with you about Fox programming skills
9-09-2008 @ 10:50AM
dennis phillips said...
sounds to much like another run of x-files....whats next gunsmoke?
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9-09-2008 @ 11:11AM
natallica said...
My Tivo is showing that the pilot is 1:35 tonight, but 2hrs on Sunday. Anyone know what's up with that?
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9-09-2008 @ 11:36AM
Lazarus said...
The original broadcast is part of a special Fox advertising initiative where there will be 1 sponsor for the entire broadcast of the show but fewer commercials overall. So it runs 1h35m with limited commercials tonight and then 2h with regular commercials on Sunday.
9-09-2008 @ 11:30AM
kip said...
This will be a hit but it needs to make sure that it does not pull solutions out the ass at all. Agents having a reserve = Marshall hacking a Cray supercomputer with his Vic 20.
Build the tech into the show and not use simple one liners and the show will build cred. Takes time but worth it in the long run
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9-09-2008 @ 2:01PM
Oreo said...
I think there is a good chance this will be like Drive, huge media and ads and everything and no one watches.
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9-09-2008 @ 2:31PM
Mark O. Estes said...
I don't know why, but this comment "gain, I get the idea they are getting at. But shows like ER don't have a mystery at the core of their ongoing relationships and storylines. It's a big difference. Having already seen the premiere, I have to wonder. It certainly teases the idea of a grand conspiracy. The kind that spawns cult followings, fan sites, and long drawn out posts on what it all means" bothered me a little and its not because I am one of those people, but because I am just a fan of the "serialized drama". I think Fringe has the potential to both be a serialized drama and still draw in people who won't care about "what does it all mean" by having the key ingredients to do so: great story, great characters and great execution of the previous two. My mom watches LOST, but not because of the Dharma stuff or the mythology. It is a factor to her, but only when it involves the characters that she has grown to love and invest in. So I think that if Fringe can pull this aspect off then Fox has a surefire hit on their hands with not just the cult followers, but the mainstream audience as well.
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9-09-2008 @ 2:41PM
Kim said...
I'm pretty fired up for this series. I have been really impressed by the trailers. I am also willing to give any show produced by JJ Abrams a chance since Lost and Alias are two of my favorite tv series ever.
Time will tell if it will get the ratings it needs to survive but I'm betting it will.
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9-09-2008 @ 2:48PM
Europa said...
One thing I will never understand is why the networks so like putting apples and oranges together and then wondering why it didn’t work.
Although I like House (not so much over the last couple of seasons) and I’m a sci fi/mystery fan (which is what I think Fringe probably is) I don’t think putting them together is a sure fire way to get a lead-in audience. Birds of a feather do have a tendency to flock together and House type fans aren’t necessarily going to be Fringe type fans. You know what I mean? If the tease before the opening title is good House fans might stick around until the first commercial break or so but will they come back the following week? Eh.
The other thing I’m keeping in mind is Bionic Woman.
Fringe could very easily turn out to be the Bionic Woman of this new season. It’s got all the same sort of buzz. It’s got the same sort of “successful creative/production team” with a previous hit under their belt behind it. It’s got the same sort of network praises. It’s got the same sort of sweet spot on the schedule to get it launched, etc., etc., etc. Everybody, including myself, was all excited and couldn’t wait for BW to begin and then within two to three weeks we were, literally, begging the network to take it off. We didn’t even want our other favorites scheduled anywhere near it for fear it would bring them down with it.
With that in mind, and since most of us haven’t had the benefit of seeing the pilot a head of time, I think if the writing is good and the acting is good it will hold demographic/genre fans for at least the first six episodes or so. But if they want to keep fans for longer than that and get the okay for the back nine from the network, it will have to remain consistent and build over the season.
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9-09-2008 @ 6:12PM
Michael said...
I think that given how awesome LOST and Alias was FOX will have a difficult time cancelling the show once ratings drop but im pretty confident they will be able to. In other words while JJ Abrams is my God and LOST is Dharmawesome yes its a word I don't expect FRINGE to last long enough to even get a season 1 finale very quick cancellation. I hope so much that I will be wrong though.
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9-09-2008 @ 9:11PM
sdm said...
Well, I'm an hour in & this show sucks a bowl of c*^ks. It is a steaming pile of sh%#t.
It sucks.
sdm
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9-25-2008 @ 1:37AM
cin said...
To sdm,
You really need to give this show a chance. I missed the pilot, but saw the 9/16 show and it was great,so I watched half the pilot on my PC and intend to watch the rest tomorrow. From what I saw of the pilot so far it isn't as good as the 9/16 show, but the cast and plotline really come through this week. Joshua Jackson has already come through with his unique style and sense of humor and his "father",Walter is an eccentric genious and a joy to watch. This show has it all. It has a bit of "House",' McGiver", "24", "Monk", and the movie "Conspiracy Theory" all rolled into one. I, for one think it's going to be the biggest hit on Fox ,next to "House". I just hope other people give it a chance to prove itself and unlike you, don't slam it after one show. Keep watching everybody and you'll see how many 'fringe' benefits this show really has.
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