I've always been amazed at how analysts can project who's won the box office for the weekend before that weekend even ends. But I've never seen a box office champ predicted before the movie is even released. Apparently, though, that seems to be the case with the new movie from two of the funniest women on TV.According to The Hollywood Reporter, the movie Baby Mama, which stars SNL's Amy Poehler and 30 Rock's Tina Fey, will likely win the box office race this weekend. The film, which is being released today, has been garnering a lot of pre-release interest among 12-to-16 year-old girls, according to tracking surveys taken over the last few weeks. Huh? Didn't know stories about surrogacy were big with teenage girls. Is there something someone isn't telling me?
Anyway, I'm not surprised that the movie will be a success; Fey is so hot career-wise right now that she could star in a Saw sequel and make money. And Poehler isn't far behind.
Oh, and it's a decent movie, too; I'm doing a little moonlighting for our sister site Cinematical while the Tribeca Film Festival is going on, and I reviewed the movie as part of its festival coverage (here's some fun stuff -- including audio -- from the movie's press junket last week). It's nothing spectacular or revolutionary, but Fey and Poehler have great chemistry together, and Poehler carries the comedy load for the movie. I just wish it had some of Fey's snark in it; alas, it was written by director Mike McCullers of the Austin Powers movies and not Fey. Surprising, huh?
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
4-25-2008 @ 9:17AM
Thomas said...
There's something about Poehler that makes me think that she's a few degrees away from being crazy. Not that it's a bad quality but still, her eyes have that twinkle (or should that be glint) in them.
Frankly any movie with Tina Fey & Maura Tierney in it can have my money without me even needing to see it.
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4-25-2008 @ 9:22AM
Joel Keller said...
Thomas, Tierney is barely in the movie, maybe a couple of scenes. She plays Fey's sister and Holland Taylor plays Fey's mother. Both are in the movie too briefly and do too little, considering how talented both actresses are. Makes me think a lot of their scenes hit the cutting room floor.
4-25-2008 @ 9:25AM
Thomas said...
A few scenes is better than no scenes in my book, which is imaginary.
4-25-2008 @ 9:46AM
chgosaint said...
We all know how great movies from SNL cast members always are. Tina Fey is very talented, but the reviews I have read so far are NOT good. It sounds like this movie might be as good as "The Ladies Man"
For a good movie this weekend (and probably the funniest I have seen in 15 years) go see "Forgettting Sarah Marshall". Hysterical.
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4-25-2008 @ 9:47AM
bruce said...
Are any other movies being released this weekend? I don't know of any. The only commercials I've seen for movies opening this weekend are for this flick. So if that's the case is it really hard to predict this will be the biggest draw this weekend?
I agree that Amy Poehler has a crazy look to her. But so does her husband Will Arnet. Their kids will look absolutely psychotic. But they'll probably be pretty funny. After Arrested Development, Will Arnet will always be funny in my opinion.
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4-25-2008 @ 10:08AM
Jimmy said...
I hope the movie does well, but all this hype makes me think Tina's being set up to fail.
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4-25-2008 @ 10:08AM
Thomas said...
I do fear that this will be like most Hollywood comedies of recent years - funny trailer but as a movie the funny bits will essentially only be what was in the trailer and half of it will be pure filler material. There have been so many promising comedies that were half good but that have ultimately left me unsatisfied that I don't hold out much hope, hopefully this will surprise somewhat.
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4-25-2008 @ 11:29AM
kevjohn said...
"But I've never seen a box office champ predicted before the movie is even released."
Really? They've even made a game of it on your sister site: http://www.cinematical.com/category/box-office-predictions-1/
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4-25-2008 @ 12:01PM
r.r.r. said...
i think harold and kumar is going to take this movie weekend, but i think baby mama and forgetting sarah marshall won't be far behind. it would rock if all those three films were on the top five though. :)
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4-25-2008 @ 12:27PM
1iPete said...
Saw doesn't need Tina Fey for box office, every one of it's movies is profitable, something Baby Mama hopes to be.
This movie may win opening weekend, but Harold & Kumar will be funnier and make far more money through it's life cycle at the box office and dvd sales/rentals.
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4-25-2008 @ 12:51PM
Jake said...
I love 30 rock and Tina Fey. I even loved Mean Girls, which she wrote. But there's something about this movie that says to me it won't be a hit. Maybe it's the previews, but the movie looks more obnoxious than funny obnoxious. It's thin line. It will be interesting to see how it does. IF anyone isn't sure about this movie, go check out Forgetting Sarah Marshall.
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4-25-2008 @ 1:25PM
MosquitoControl72 said...
Amy Poehler looks absolutely unwatchable in the previews. I was a fan of her on UCB, but haven't seen a single SNL since she joined.
Gotta say, if this is how she acts on it, I'm keeping it that way. She's just doing the over-the-top-moron act in the previews. You know, the same one pretty much every SNL alum does. No variation anymore, no subtlety, just over-the-top-moron routines that any idiot can do.
Not funny to me. I'll be avoiding this movie.
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4-25-2008 @ 3:09PM
Franklin said...
As I was reading your comment all I could think was how you were describing Will Ferrell perfectly.
4-25-2008 @ 4:05PM
Paul said...
Hmm... ever seen a movie before after watching the trailer? Because often, the scenes they put in the 2 minute trailer don't fully represent the character/film for an entire 90-120 minutes. I only say this because Poehler's character in "Baby Mama" definitely is more than just a "one trick pony". It's not the greatest comedy of all time, and I liked "Forgetting Sarah Marshall" more, but it's definitely worth checking out.
I'm also wondering... if you were a fan of hers at UCB, why haven't you at least checked out what she was like on SNL even once in the last 7 years. Seems odd is all -- usually when I'm a fan of someone, I'll follow them to other projects out of pure curiosity if nothing else.
4-25-2008 @ 5:40PM
MosquitoControl said...
Franklin - I find Will Ferrell to be one of the least funny men alive.
Paul - because everyone else on SNL is terrible, the writing is terrible, etc. The show has been awful since a year or two before Phil Hartman left, and I may only have found it funny then because I was a teenager. Any sketches I've seen since, either on youtube or tv, are almost always godawful. I watched some of those Chris Walken clips posted on this site a few weeks back... why would anyone waste two hours of their life watching that show? Don't we all have better things to do at 11:30 on a Saturday, even if it's just sleep?
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4-26-2008 @ 12:02AM
Franklin said...
Please. It's going to be Harold & Kumar that will be #1. And I have no vested interest in this fight, as I have never seen the first H&K film. Frankly, Tina Fey is over-rated.
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4-27-2008 @ 5:52AM
Will said...
Hey, I don't want to sound like a know-it-all, I just wanted to clairify the box-office-predicting info. Actually, it's almost a science to predicting which movie will win the weekend, how much each opener will do, etc. There's a really fun, free, game at www.hsx.com. It stands for Hollywood Stock Exchange. You sign up and get a (Fictional) $2 million to invest in movie stock & star bonds. If you predict right & get the winners, you make money. It's really fun and addicting, I've been playing (with varying degrees of involvement) since 1998! For example, summertime is the big money time & every weekend we not only try to predict what movie will win but also what it will gross. Most of the time it's simple i.e. when Ironman opens in a few weeks, it will dominate the box & most likely gross in excess of $80 million. Believe it or not, the market is quite accurate a good portion of the time. There are lots of other sites online that make box office predictions, too, and you use that info to make your own prediction. If you have any interest in movies & box office, check it out. It's fun.
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5-09-2008 @ 11:23AM
viewdrix said...
Box office predictions on the Thursday before or Friday of release are common.
And if Harold and Kumar 2 don't win, I'll be surprised. very surprised.
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