TVSquad

Is there a real disadvantage to going first on American Idol or is it just speculation? I first brought this up when we went from our Top 16 to our Top 12 as all four eliminated contestants were among the first three performers on their respective nights. On the girls side, Asia'h and Kady sang first and second and were eliminated as quickly. Also eliminated were Luke, who sang first, and Danny who sang third. But it took the elimination of Michael Johns, considered by some one of the strongest competitors, a couple of weeks ago after he'd sung first to get the attention of major media.

How could it be that someone who'd never spent a moment in the bottom three could suddenly find himself on the chopping block?

I think people may have finally noticed his Robin Williams-like hairy arms. But ratings on the show do tend to tick up as it progresses, meaning many of the folks who are watching when it ends and the phone lines open missed the first few performances. How can they vote for those people? (The same way they vote for politicians without knowing anything about them *badump-bum*). Well, far be it for me to bitch about a problem without offering the solution, too.

Nick Straguzzi, who co-founded WhatNotToSing.com and analyzes American Idol data so the likes of you and me don't have to has found that in 69 finals episodes, 20 singers in that lead-off spot have been voted off. That's seven more than would be expected based on statistical probability. This year, in the first six weeks since Top 12 competition began, four times the number one slotted performer has been in the bottom three, twice being eliminated. "The No. 1 slot is by far the most dangerous for finalists," Straguzzi says. I would add that the next few slots beyond that don't fare much better.

But a possible solution is really quite simple. It doesn't take long to record a live show and have it available for streaming online, hell pirates can have a TV show online within minutes of it's ending. So why doesn't American Idol stream the full performances on their website? I know they worry that it will hurt the ratings of the show, so make them available only during the two hours the phone lines are open for voting.

They could eliminate the judges' commentary and all the other fluff and they should find that most viewers will still want to watch the whole show on television when it originally airs. But for those who were out or late getting home, they'd then have an opportunity to go somewhere and see how Michael did on that performance. More of us have computers than DVRs still and this would go a long way to addressing what even executive producer Ken Warwick says is "a little bit" of a disadvantage to those contestants performing first.

FUN WITH NUMBERS

Guide
Contestant: Performance spot(# of performers), repeat, rinse, tumble dry on low

Top 6
Brooke: 6(G12), 3(G10), 7(G8), 7(T12), 5(T11), 5(T10), 1(T9), 8(T8), 4(T7)
Carly: 12(G12), 1(G10), 4(G8), 5(T12), 7(T11), 7(T10), 5(T9), 6(T8), 2(T7)
David A. 6(B12), 10(B10), 2(B8), 12(T12), 3(T11), 8(T10), 6(T9), 7(T8), 1(T7)
David C.: 3(B12), 9(B10), 6(B8), 6(T12), 6(T11), 10(T10), 2(T9), 5(T8), 6(T7)
Jason C.: 11(B12), 2(B10), 7(B8), 4(T12), 8(T11), 2(T10), 4(T9), 3(T8), 7(T7)
Syesha: 11(G12), 2(G10), 8(G8), 1(T12), 9(T11), 3(T10), 8(T9), 2(T8), 3(T7)

Bottom 18
7 - Kristy: 1(G12), 5(G10), 5(G8), 11(T12), 2(T11), 9(T10), 7(T9), 4(T8), 5(T7)
8 - Michael: 12(B12), 1(B10), 5(B8), 10(T12), 4(T11), 6(T10), 9(T9), 1(T8)
9 - Ramiele: 10(G12), 4(G10), 6(G8), 3(T12), 11(T11), 1(T10), 3(T9)
10 - Chikezie: 2(B12), 8(B10), 8(B8), 2(T12), 10(T11), 4(T10)
11 - Amanda: 4(G12), 6(G10), 3(G8), 9(T12), 1(T11)
12 - David H: 1(B12), 6(B10), 4(B8), 8(T12)
13 - Danny: 7(B12), 5(B10), 3(B8)
14 - Asia'h: 9(G12), 10(G10), 1(G8)
15 - Luke: 8(B12), 3(B10), 1(B8)
16 - Kady: 8(G12), 9(G10), 2(G8)
17 - Robbie: 5(B12), 4(B10)
18 - Alaina: 3(G12), 7(G10)
19 - Alexandrea: 7(G12), 8(G10)
20 - Jason Y.: 4(B12), 7(B10)
21 - Colton: 9(B12)
22 - Joanne: 2(G12)
23 - Amy: 5(G12)
24 - Garrett: 10(B12)