TVSquad

Welcome back to our weekly American Idol polls round-up. Each week we look at various online polls that were conducted from the end of last week's results up to the performance show Tuesday. And then a few that were conducted after the performance show, but before the results were revealed.

This way we can analyze how the week's performances affected a contestant's overall popularity, and how well the internet can predict eliminations. We'll also see how each contestant fared week to week in each poll, moving up or down. And we can see how amazingly wrong some of these polls can be. After all, none of them predicted little Ramiele going home, and most of them had Syesha at the bottom, who didn't even land in the bottom three.

What this means is that we need to spend less time voting online and more time dialing our phones. We have millions of thirteen-year old girls to compete with and I have carpal tunnel. I need your help!



WEEK-TO-WEEK POLLS (PRE-PERFORMANCE)
Other than the major rise of Michael Johns across the board, there was virtually no movement on any of the boards. In fact, AOL didn't even reflect Michael Johns improvement, whereas the other polls essentially only made room for his rise with virtually every other position remaining unchanged. And the Davids continue to flip-flop for the top spot week after week. As such, individual poll analysis at this point is almost without point.

Guide to the polls:
Position - [change from last week] Contestant (Percentage of votes)

AOL
1(T) - [+1] David Archuleta (20.6%)
1(T) - [=] David Cook (20.6%)
3 - [+1] Jason Castro (11.6%)
4 - [-1] Michael Johns (11.3%)
5 - [=] Brooke White (8.9%)
6 - [+1] Ramiele Malubay (8.2%)
7 - [-1] Carly Smithson(7.8%)
8 - [=] Kristy Lee Cook (5.6%)
9 - [=] Syesha Mercado (5.4%)
I will point out that even down to the raw numbers (and AOL pulls in some pretty big numbers with their polls) the Davids are at a 100% literal tie for votes. Kind of raises the question. If AOL can come to a literal tie in votes, couldn't it happen on Idol. I wonder what the rules are for that?

TV Guide
1 - [+1] David Cook (48.1%)
2 - [-1] David Archuleta (18.7%)
3 - [+3] Michael Johns (11.1%)
4 - [-1] Brooke White (9.2%)
5 - [-1] Carly Smithson (6.1%)
6 - [-1] Jason Castro (4.2%)
7 - [=] Kristy Lee Cook (1.1%)
8 - [=] Ramiele Malubay (0.8%)
9 - [=] Syesha Mercado (0.6%)

VoteFair.org
1 - [=] David Archuleta (37.7%)
2 - [=] David Cook (20.8%)
3 - [+3] Michael Johns (9.9%)
4 - [-1] Jason Castro (9.0%)
5 - [-1] Ramiele Malubay (8.4%)
6 - [-1] Brooke White (7.1%)
7 - [=] Carly Smithson (4.3%)
8 - [=] Kristy Lee Cook (1.9%)
9 - [=] Syesha Mercado (1.0%)
The only other thing of note is that for the most part, the elimination of Chikezie only meant that the next lowest vote getter was now the lowest vote getter as Syesha continued to get no love from online voters anywhere. And surprisingly, this wasn't to change much after the performances either. I wonder if people are voting truly how they feel or how they think others will vote.

AFTER-PERFORMANCE POLLS

AOL
1 - [=] David Cook (18.5%)
2 - [=] David Archuleta (18.5%)
3 - [+1] Jason Castro (12.0%)
4 - [-1] Michael Johns (10.5%)
5 - [+2] Ramiele Malubay (9.6%)
6 - [-1] Brooke White (8.7%)
7 - [+1] Kristy Lee Cook (8.4%)
8 - [-2] Carly Smithson (7.0%)
9 - [=] Syesha Mercado (6.7%)
After the performances, the votes at the top were still statistically a tie, but there was at least some Clay-Ruben differentiation. The way this is going we could even wind up with a finale as close as that one. And the only guarantee would be that David would win ... oh yes, I went there.

TV Squad
1 - [+1] Michael Johns (36.3%)
2 - [+2] David Archuleta (30.3%)
3 - [-2] David Cook (10.8%)
4 - [+5] Carly Smithson (6.1%)
5 - [-2] Ramiele Malubay (3.9%)
6 - [=] Kristy Lee Cook (3.7%)
7 - [-2] Brooke White (3.2%)
8 - [-1] Jason Castro (3.0%)
9 - [-1] Syesha Mercado (2.7%)
TVS voters continue to be the most reactive to any performance show. And their votes most seem to represent a response to that particular night's performances rather than a cumulative response to a contestant's run on the whole show. Except for Syesha. TVS readers hate her, too. In fact, we were the only poll to actually lower her to last place after her performance this week. The online world must have really been stunned when Ramiele was sent home as nobody even really saw her in the bottom three.

Dial Idol
1 - [+1] David Archuleta (11.3%)
2 - [+2] Michael Johns (6.8%)
3 - [-2] David Cook (6.3%)
4 - [+3] Syesha Mercado (5.8%)
5 - [+1] Brooke White (5.2%)
6 - [-3] Carly Smithson (5.1%)
7 - [-2] Kristy Lee Cook (5.0%)
8 - [+1] Jason Castro (4.8%)
9 - [-1] Ramiele Malubay (2.8%)
I'm moving Dial Idol to the bottom of the list here, because it's not so much an online poll as an analysis of busy signals on the contestant's individual phone lines. And perhaps for that reason it's the only one that saw Ramiele's demise coming. Maybe it's a case of everyone assuming she was safe and not bothering to vote for her.

One thing I've learned this week is that online polls are incredibly inaccurate. I guess that means Ralph Nader could still become president in 2008, right? I mean, sure the polls say he doesn't really have a chance but the polls also said Syesha was going home this week. Looks like we're in for a Green winter.