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First guessing NBC's Monday experiment

Matthwe Perry, Kyle ChandlerTonight is an interesting night on NBC. With two of their most hyped shows struggling, they've decided to throw a little time slot voodoo at us and see what happens. Tonight's Studio 60 was scheduled to be a repeat, but instead the kids from Friday Night Lights are going to get a go in the post Heroes spot. I think that's a good idea. A repeat would almost guarantee a drop in viewers, and the last thing Studio 60 needs is another round of stories that say "ratings drop for the Xth week in a row."

The situation with Friday Night Lights is a little different. Where Studio 60 has lost viewers every week, Friday Night Lights just never found them in the first place. The numbers have been fairly consistent, but when you premiere below expectations, consistent isn't exactly what you are looking for. And the fact that I use the word consistent is evidence that I really like the show. A more objective person might call the numbers stagnant.

Now, it would be easy to second guess NBC's move tomorrow after we have the ratings, but where's the fun in that? I'm curious to see what everyone thinks will happen beforehand. So, here are the numbers we are working with. Last week Friday Night Lights had a 4.0 rating and Studio 60 managed a 5.1. Those numbers lead to a some interesting questions. Will Friday Night Lights beat Studio 60's last outing in the time slot? If so, what does NBC do with the schedule? What kind of a number will give the slot to Friday Night Lights for good?

I think Friday Night Lights will beat Studio 60's last outing, garnering something in the 6.0 to 6.5 range. But wait... we have a flag on the play. Looking at the schedule, CBS is all repeats tonight. That's important because Horatio has been driving all over Studio 60 in his Hummer the last few weeks. So even though that would be a clear improvement for the slot, I think it leaves a lot of wiggle room for NBC to waffle. It will take something above a 7 to lock Heroes and Friday Night Lights together from here on out. Of course, that may also depend on what happens with the Tuesday Friday Night Lights episode as well. If those new viewers from Monday show up again Tuesday, that might be enough to convince NBC to stay there a while longer and see what happens when ABC is done with the dancing.

To finish the thought off, what does NBC do with Studio 60 in the event that the Friday Night Lights numbers are just too big to ignore? This is what I am actually hoping for. Heroes/Friday Night Lights is a much better match. And keeping Studio 60 in that slot is doing it no favors. What I would really like to see is Studio 60 on Wednesday at 9. Take another week to let the Lost mini season run it's course and then come back and go head to head with Daybreak. There is an opportunity to build an audience while Lost is on hiatus. That does mean that they would have to go up against Criminal Minds, but Jason Gideon is not nearly as fearsome as Horatio Caine.

Whatever the case, it will be interesting to watch. I do give NBC credit for having some patience with these two shows. Given the performance, I'm not sure that the other networks would have been so kind.

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